Poll watch: Obama maintains wide lead nationally, PA tightens a bit, Merkley might already have won

Update: A new national CBS News poll brings Democrats great news, as Barack Obama now leads 54% to 41% in a poll conducted Tuesday through Friday – up from the 11% lead Obama had in the previous CBS News poll (that one had been conducted from the 25th to the 28th). Once again, Obama is above 50%, McCain is in the low 40s. (I apologize for being repetitive, but the race has been remarkably stable for weeks).

In what is perhaps the worst internal number of the poll, 48% say that McCain will raise their taxes versus only 47% who think Obama will do so – a sign that McCain’s tax offensive has failed to destabilize Obama. Furthermore, Obama leads by 19% among those who have already cast their ballot (about 20% of the sample), a margin that corresponds to other polls we have been seeing.

Original post: Three days from the election, Barack Obama retains a commanding lead that has barely budged over the past few weeks. There is no evidence of a last minute McCain push: the margin widens in four of the day’s seven tracking polls and it remains stable in two others. While there is some day-to-day variation, both candidates have been oscillating within the same range for weeks: Obama is at or above 51% in five of the seven tracking polls, while McCain is still in the low 40s (42% to 44%, with a high at 46% in Rasmussen).

Worse still for McCain, Obama is ahead in tracking polls that have a wide partisan gap (Washington Post/ABC, for instance) as well as those that hypothesize a far tighter breakdown (Zogby and IBD/TIPP, for instance). While the size of his lead varies according to the turnout model pollsters use, there is no disagreement on whether he is ahead.

In fact, the best news for Obama today might be that we are starting to get an answer on which turnout model best predicts this year’s election. Today marks the very first time that there is no difference between Gallup’s two likely voter models (the traditional and the expanded); Obama is usually further ahead in the expanded model. Gallup attributes this partly to the fact that 27% of respondents say they have already cast a ballot, locking them in the likely voter model no matter what their prior voting history. This suggests that sporadic voters are making a greater share of the electorate than the “traditional” LV format hypothesizes.

Then there is Zogby, of course, whose three-day average has a 5% lead for Obama but who warns that the tide might be turning. Last night, the Drudge Report treated its readers with a shock headline, proclaiming that McCain had seized a 1% lead in the Friday sample of Zogby’s tracking poll. Beyond the fact that one night samples are not meant to be treated as a full survey – which is the whole point of a tracking poll – this once again raises questions about Zogby’s theatrics and about his professionalism; it is silly to treat any movement as an earth-shattering change of momentum, and so is leaking your results to Drudge hours before posting them on your website. Furthermore, none of the six other tracking polls have found a similar Friday tightening – quite the contrary.

All of this said, Republicans can take some comfort in the latest Pennsylvania polls – and remember that there is no early voting so no one’s vote has been cast in stone just yet. The five most recent surveys – Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, Mason Dixon, Morning Call and Rasmussen again – have all found McCain gaining ground, and ARG’s first poll since mid-September has a 6% margin. Rasmussen and Strategic Vision have the exact same trend line (Obama up double-digit three weeks ago, up high single-digits last week and now up by 4% and 5%), while today marks the first time that Obama’s margin is down to single digits in Morning Call’s tracking poll.

That said, 4% to 8% gap might have made Democrats anxious three weeks ago, but we are now three days from the election and Obama remains ahead outside of the margin of error in all polls from the state. There is very little time for McCain to finish closing that gap, and it is important to note that Obama remains above 50% in both Rasmussen and Morning Call. Finally, Republicans are concentrating their efforts in the Keystone State (First Read reports that  push-polling is underway in the state) while Obama has no plan to visit the state until Tuesday, making some tightening inevitable.

The bottom-line remains: Pennsylvania has become a must-win for McCain, and even an upset in the Keystone State would need to be accompanied by a sweep of nearly all competitive red states (Obama is ahead in two new Florida polls and tied in a third, underscoring the magnitude of the challenge).

• Trackings: Obama gains 1% in Rasmussen (51% to 46%), in Research 2000 (51% to 44%), in Gallup (52% to 42%, the same margin as in the LVT model in which Obama gains 2%; he leads by 11% among RVs) and 1% in IBD/TIPP (48% to 43%). The margin remains stable in Hotline but Obama crosses 50% (51% to 44%) and in Washington Post/ABC (53% to 44%, though independents split equally). Obama loses 2% in Zogby (49% to 44%). Obama’s leads are thus: 5%, 5%, 5%, 7%, 7%, 9%, 10%.
• Gallup finds that 27% of likely voters have already cast a ballot and that they skew more towards Obama than other voters, a development that might explain why the two LV models now coincide.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll conducted on Thursday, down from an 7% lead last week and a 13% lead three weeks ago; this is primarily due to Obama’s decline among registered Democrats, among which he receives 75% of the vote. Obama leads 52% to 44% in the Morning Call tracking poll, the first time since October 2nd the margin has been down to single-digits. Obama leads 51% to 45% in an ARG poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday. (For what it’s worth, PPP is saying that they are currently in the field in Pennsylvania and see very little for Obama to worry about.)

• Florida: Two pollsters release their second poll in as many week – and find contrasting trends. Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday; McCain trailed by 2% last week. The candidates are tied in a Datamar poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday (Obama led by 5% 4 days before). Finally, Obama leads 50% to 46% in an ARG poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday.

• Iowa: Obama leads 53% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Monday through Wednesday; he led by 16% at the end of September.

• Indiana: The candidates are tied in an ARG poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday.

• Minnesota: Obama leads 53% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Monday through Wednesday.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a University of Wisconsin poll conducted from the 21st to the 28th.

• South Dakota: McCain leads 53% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll, a margin that has tightened over the past month.

• Safe(r) states: Obama leads 57% to 38% in a SUSA poll and 55% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of Oregon. Obama leads 60% to 36% in a SUSA poll of California (he leads by 19% among the 42% of respondents who have already voted). McCain leads 51% to 44% in an ARG poll of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

• Proposition 8 remains very close, though SUSA has the “no” gaining. Down 6% a month ago and 3% two weeks ago, the “no” is now narrowly ahead 50% to 47%. That is primarily due to movement among Democrats and African-Americans. Early voters (42% of the sample) split 50% “no” to 48% “yes.” It could still go either way, but it looks like the “no” has at least stopped the bleeding.
• The “no” is also gaining in Proposition 4 (abortion), which now trails 46% to 40% and leads by 8% among early voters.

• Oregon, Senate race: Jeff Merkley leads 49% to 42% in a SUSA poll conducted over the past two days. More than 70% of respondents say they have already voted, and Merkley leads by 10% among those voters. Merkley leads 48% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Monday through Wednesday; Merkley leads by 40% among those who say they have already cast a ballot.

• Kentucky, Senate race: Mitch McConnell leads 47% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Monday through Wednesday.

• Minnesota, Senate race: Norm Coleman leads 43% to 40% with 15% going to Barkley in a Research 2000 poll conducted Monday through Wednesday.

• In WY-AL, GOP candidate Cynthia Lummis takes a 49% to 45% lead in a Research 2000 poll. Gary Trauner led by 1% two weeks ago.

• In NV-03, the candidates are tied at 44% in a Mason Dixon poll; GOP Rep. Porter led by 3% three weeks ago.

• In NV-02, GOP Rep. Heller leads 50% to 37% in a Mason Dixon poll; he led by the same margin 3% ago.

With the vast majority of Oregon ballots already cast (ballots have to have arrived by Tuesday, meaning that many voters have already mailed them in), it looks like Jeff Merkley will be the next Senator from Oregon as SUSA’s poll (as well as PPP’s yesterday) are now measuring the way the electorate has arleady voted rather than how it is going to vote). The Kentucky and Minnesota Senate races, however, are still toss-ups, particularly the latter in which the Barkley factor is too unpredictable to venture any guess as to who will come out on top. Democrats will likely have to win at least one of these two seats if they want to rise to 60 seats.

At the House level, Research 2000’s poll of WY-AL finds that the race is still within the margin of error but the trendline is worrisome for Democrat Gary Trauner: We knew that most of the undecided were Republican and that Lummis had to get those voters to come home, and this poll suggests that this might be happening. Note that this is a very important race for Democrats: Getting people like Trauner elected would give them a bench from which to potentially contest Senate races in a few cycles.

Poll watch: Dems still far from 60, and is NV in the same tier as CO and VA?

The presidential race remained remarkably stable. If the tracking polls showed McCain gaining slightly yesterday, they have Obama regaining some breathing room today; he is at 50% or above in 6 of the 9 national polls. McCain is once again stuck in the low 40s, with a margin ranging from 41% to 46%. Sure, the New York Times and Fox News national polls came out with differing results, but at least there is no mystery behind the discrepancy: the partisan breakdown has narrowed in the Fox poll.

McCain got one of his most promising polling results in days today as Mason Dixon found him trailing by only 4% in Pennsylvania – the tightest the state has been since a mid-September poll. We should not dismiss this poll, even though surveys taken over the same period show a larger advantage for Obama. Mason Dixon has been consistently releasing results that are better than average for McCain. The Republican nominee led in Virginia when other surveys found him trailing, and trailed only narrowly when other surveys found a large gap; the same was true in Florida and now Pennsylvania. The consistency of these narrower results suggests that it is due to Mason Dixon’s methodology and turnout models, which means that we should not throw these out as outliers: There is a turnout model out there employed by a respected pollster like Mason Dixon that yields results that are better for Republicans, and we won’t know until Tuesday whose assumptions were flawed.

All of this said, there is no discussion to be had that Obama retains an extremely strong position in the electoral college. For one, he remains ahead in the Big Three sates: 3 polls of Pennsylvania show him in the lead (though Mason Dixon has a 4% race), and he is also ahead in Colorado and Virginia. While two polls of Virginia show him with narrower leads than we have seen of late, both surveys were taken over the same period as the CNN and SUSA polls that had him leading by 9% – so these new polls are not picking any new tightening.

To make matters worse for McCain, we might now be getting a third competitive red state where an Obama pick-up appears increasingly likely: Nevada. After posting two double-digit leads earlier this week, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in two new surveys (Suffolk and CNN/Time). This is a very important development: Even if McCain were to save Virginia and Colorado, Obama would become president by winning Nevada alone; if McCain can somehow snatch Pennsylvania, an (not at all improbable) Obama sweep of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would offset the loss of the Keystone State.

As if this was not enough, Ohio and North Carolina are slowly moving in Obama’s column as the Democrat is accumulating good results in both. Today, he leads in all five polls from these two states, and four of them have him ahead outside of the MoE. Given that a huge number of North Carolina voters have already voted, it is starting to get late for McCain to turn the tide. And while Obama is showing no sign of trembling in blue states (he has huge leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota), McCain is now locked in highly competitive races in a number of staunchly red states – including his home state of Arizona, South Dakota and Montana.

• Obama leads 52% to 41% in a New York Times/CBS News poll, a very small tightening from Obama’s 13% lead last week. 51% say Obama is ready to be president, and McCain’s favorability has collapsed to 41% (!). So has voters’ estimate of whether Palin is able to deal the job (only 35% say so). Obama leads among men and women, and has a 17% advantage among independents.

• Obama leads 47% to 44% in a Fox News national poll conducted over the past two days. Obama led by 9% last week, so the race has substantially tightened. The partisan ID has tightened from a 6% gap to a 2% gap (though this does not seem to be an arbitrary imposition like Zogby’s).

• Tracking polls: Obama gains 2% in Zogby (50% to 43%) and in Rasmussen (51% to 46%). He gains 1% in IBD/TIPP (48% to 44%). The race is stable in Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%), Gallup (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 2% in the LVT model, 50% to 45%). Obama loses 1% in Hotline (48% to 42%) and in Research 2000 (50% to 45%). Obama’s leads are thus: 4%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Sunday and Monday. Obama leads 54% to 41% in Morning Call’s tracking, the highest percentage Obama has ever received in this poll. Obama leads 55% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 15% among registered voters!).

• Colorado: Obama leads 51% to 45% in a Marist poll (52% to 43% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; his lead comes entirely among the 44% of registered voters who say they have already voted. Obama leads by 23% among independents and has strongest party loyalty (leading me to question why he is only ahead by 6%). Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama leads by 22% among independents.

• Virginia: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Marist poll (by 6% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; McCain takes a 12% lead among independents. Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Both polls were taken over the same period as SUSA, Rasmussen and CNN poll showing larger Obama leads.

• Nevada: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a RGJ/Research 2000 poll (he led by 7% earlier in October); McCain leads by 3% in crucial Washoe County, though the RGJ points out that (unreleased) private polls for both parties have Obama leading that county. Obama leads 52% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday, an improvement over his 5% lead last week (he leads by 11% among registered voters!).

• Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 41% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama’s lead is outside of the MoE. Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 10% among registered voters!).

• Florida: Obama leads 45% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday.

• North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (McCain led by 2% on Sunday). Obama leads 47% to 43% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Obama leads 52% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama led by 4% last week, he is ahead by 3% among registered voters).

• Indiana: McCain leads 49% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (he led by 7% three weeks ago). Obama leads 46% to 45% in a Selzer & Co poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday; he is ahead 2:1 among early voters and gets “only” 82% of African-Americans (remember Tuesday’s polling memo released by the McCain campaign?). The candidates are tied at 47% in a Research 2000 poll taken from Friday through Tuesday.

• Minnesota: Obama leads 48% to 40% in a Mason Dixon poll taken Sunday and Monday; he leads 56% to 37% in a MPR poll.

• Wisconsin: Obama takes a giant 55% to 39% lead in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday, up from 8%. Obama leads by 28% among early voters.

• Iowa: Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday.

• Arizona: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll; he leads 53% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll.

• South Dakota: McCain only leads 45% to 40% in an internal poll for Democratic Senator Johnson’s campaign.

• Montana: McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by four weeks ago.

• Safe(r) states: McCain leads 61% to 36% in a SUSA poll of Alabama. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 56% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Massachusetts. Obama leads 55% to 33% in a Field poll of California. Obama leads 54% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 53% to 42% in a NBC News poll and 52% to 44% in a SUSA poll of South Carolina (but only by 6% among registered voters). McCain leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

• North Carolina’s Senate race: Kay Hagan leads 52% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. She leads 43% to 37% in a National Journal poll that has a lot of undecided voters.

• Louisiana: Two polls have differing results. An internal poll for the Kennedy campaign has Mary Landrieu up 45% to 44%, while a Loyola University poll has Landrieu ahead 49% to 34%; the latter poll does not seem very reliable, however, as it only shows McCain leading by 3% and implying an oversampling of Democrats.

• Mark Udall leads 51% to 36% in a National Journal poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

• Mitch McConnell leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. (McConnell led by the same margin last month.) A Lunsford internal has McConnell leading 47% to 45%, however.

• Norm Coleman leads 42% to 36% in a Mason Dixon poll of Minnesota. Barkley is now at 12%, and he is hurting Franken: He draws 17% of Democrats and only 4% of Republicans – a hugely consequential disparity.

• Safer seats: Tom Udall leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of New Mexico. GOP Senator Pat Roberts leads 60% to 33% in a new SUSA poll of Kansas. Democratic Senator Lautenberg leads 56% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. Sen. Cornyn leads 45% to 36% in a University of Texas poll, with 5% going to Libertarian candidate Adams-Schick. GOP candidate Jim Risch leads 45% to 33% in a Harstad poll of Idaho.

• In MO-06, perhaps the most disappointing House race for Democrats, GOP Rep. Graves leads 54% to 36% in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.

• In KY-02, GOP candidate Brett Guthrie leads 53% to 43% in a new SUSA poll. Guthrie led by 9% last month but trailed over the summer.

• In NV-02, GOP Rep. Heller leads 47% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll.

• In OR-05, Democratic candidate Kurt Schrader leads 55% to 33% in a SUSA poll.

• In NY-26, Republican candidate Chris Lee has a large 48% to 34% lead against Alice Kryzan in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.

• In ID-01, Democratic challenger leads 48% to 41% in a Harstad poll, though the poll has a large MoE of 6%.

• In PA-12, Rep. Murtha only leads 46% to 44% in a GOP poll conducted by Dane & Associates.

• In PA-03, GOP Rep. English leads 47% to 45% in his own internal poll.

• In Massachusetts’s question 1 to repeal the state income tax, the “no” is far ahead, 64% to 29% in a SUSA poll.

Democrats have their share of very good news in these wave of surveys – especially the two North Carolina polls showing a Hagan lead and the NV-02 survey confirming that Rep. Heller is in real danger – Republicans got uncommly positive numbers over the past 24 hours. In the Senate, Republicans appear to be solidifying their hold on the four Senate seats that are not yet leaning Democratic – KY, MN, MS and also GA because a runoff should help Chambliss. McConnell has not slipped further after his race fell into a competitive race in early October, and Coleman has improved his situation over the past three weeks.

Minnesota should be particularly worrisome to Democrats because Franken’s slippage is due to the fact that Barkley is starting to draw disproportionately from Franken’s base. If that is confirmed by other polls, it is hard to see Franken pull this off. This is a reminder that, however much progress Democrats have made over the past few weeks, the path to 60 still requires picking-up two out of these 4 seats – and that remains a tall order.

The latest House polls should also be a reminder that Democrats will certainly not win everything on Tuesday, and that a fair number of Republicans appear to be making progress in this hostile environment. The latest poll of MO-06 has to be crushing to Democrats as former Kansas City Mayor Barnes was once one of their top recruits. And while the DCCC is still investing in NY-26, the polls have not been very promising ever since Kryzan won the Democratic nomination.

Poll watch: Obama dominates VA, gains edge in OH, Merkley in strong position, Lampson drowns

In my latest presidential ratings this morning, I identified the three states to watch in the election’s final stretch: Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado. Eight days from the election, Obama holds strong in those crucial states: A grand total of five new Virginia polls were released today, finding a consistent Obama advantage. Only Rasmussen found Obama holding a lead smaller than 7%, the four others having Obama’s lead go as high as 11%. Only one poll each from Colorado and Pennsylvania were released: Obama was leading comfortably in Pennsylvania, though his margin in Colorado is smaller than Democrats are hoping to see (4%).

That said, there is some movement in McCain’s favor in the tracking polls, and I feel compelled to point that out because of what I said in yesterday’s poll watch, when remarking on McCain’s inability to break out of the low 40s: “The day McCain manages to inch above 45%, we can think about whether the race is tightening.” Today, McCain gets to 46% in one national poll and is at 45% in three more. But Obama remains in a dominant position, as he is at 50% or above in six of the seven tracking polls; only IBD/TIPP has him at a weaker position, and that tracking’s internals are rather strange (Obama enjoys stronger party loyalty and leads among independents but only leads by 3%).

In other states, Obama’s strong position is confirmed: New polls in Ohio and Florida find Obama holding an advantage, especially in the former state. In fact, Rasmussen’s polls from these two states should put to rest talk of a tightening since Obama gains 5% and 6% in the two surveys over those released last Monday.

McCain’s two best trendlines today come from PPP’s North Carolina survey (that had Obama up 7% last week, up 1% today) and SUSA and Rasmussen’s Missouri polls (Obama led by 8% and 5%, he now ties and is ahead by 1%), but the size of Obama’s lead in all three of these surveys was not confirmed by other polls, making this week’s surveys expected regressions to the mean. In fact, it is great for Obama is that the true toss-ups are not the states he needs to win but rather places like North Carolina or Missouri: six new polls in those two states find tight races. Even Arizona polls are now showing a competitive race!

• Obama remains ahead in the day’s tracking polls, though there is some movement: Obama loses a significant three points in Research 2000 (50% to 42%, with a 5% lead in the Sunday sample) and Rasmussen (51% to 46%); he also loses 1% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 44%). Three trackings are stable: Washington Post/ABC (52% to 45%), Hotline (50% to 42%) and Zogby (50% to 45%). Obama inches up one point in Gallup (53% to 43%, the same margin as RVs and double his lead in the LVT model). That means that Obama’s leads are: 3%, 5%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 8% and 10%.

• Virginia: Five new polls have Obama in the lead by margins ranging from 4% to 11%. The two most recent are Rasmussen and SUSA: Obama leads 52% to 43% in a SUSA poll, including a huge lead among early voters. His lead in Rasmussen is smaller: 51% to 47%, down from a 10% lead last week.
• Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Zogby poll conducted over the week-end. Obama leads 52% to 44% in a Washington Post poll. (He led by 3% last month. This time, 50% of respondents say they have been personally contacted by the Obama campaign. The enthusiasm gap is huge, with 70% of Obama supporters describing themselves as enthusiastic.) Obama leads 51% to 40% in a VCU poll.

• Ohio: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Zogby poll, in which he has a 16% edge among independents. Obama leads 49% to 45% in Rasmussen, a 6% swing from last week.

• Colorado: Obama leads 50% to 46% in Rasmussen, a 1% gain for McCain over last week.

• Missouri: The candidates are tied at 48% in a SUSA poll. Obama leads 48% to 46% in a Zogby poll. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll.

• Florida: The candidates are tied at 47% in a Zogby poll, though Obama has a strangely large 62-25 lead among independents. Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Suffolk poll of the state (up from 4%). Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll, a 5% swing in his favor since last week.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Temple University poll. The survey was conducted over an entire week (from the 20th to the 26th), however.

• Nevada: Obama leads 48% to 44% in a Zogby poll, barely outside of the margin of error.

• North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 46% in a Zogby poll. Obama leads 49% to 48% in a PPP poll, though he led by 7% last week. There are far less undecided voters this week. However, among early voters (about a third of the sample), Obama leads 63% to 36% (“looking at it another way, 49% of blacks in our survey said they had already voted. Only 29% of white voters said the same”). McCain leads 49% to 48% in Rasmussen, a 1% gain for Obama since late last week.

• Iowa: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a Marist poll, the same margin he enjoyed last month.

• New Hampshire: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Marist poll, a one point decline since September.

• Indiana: McCain leads 50% to 44% in a Zogby poll.

• West Virginia: McCain leads 50% to 40% in a Zogby poll, thanks in part to 28% of Democratic voters.

• Oregon: Obama leads 57% to 38% in a SUSA poll. Half of the electorate has already voted (remember that all of Oregon votes by mail), and Obama leads by 28% among those voters.

• Arizona: The third poll in two days finds McCain in trouble in his home state. He leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll.

• Washington: Obama leads 55% to 34% in a University of Washington poll.

• Safe states: Obama leads 56% to 31% in a Hartford Courant poll of Connecticut. McCain leads 46% to 33% in a Press Register poll of Mississippi. Obama leads 61% to 34% in a Rasmussen poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• Jeff Merkley leads 49% to 42% in a SUSA poll of Oregon’s Senate race. Half of the electorate has already voted, and Merkley leads by 10% among those voters.

• Mark Udall leads 51% to 38% in a Rocky Mountain News poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

• Kay Hagan leads 48% to 45% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 8% last week.

• Jay Nixon leads 55% to 38% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.

• Christine Gregoire leads 51% to 45% in a University of Washington poll of the Washington gubernatorial race.

• In TX-22, Republican challenger Pete Olson leads Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson 53% to 36% in a new Zogby poll.

• In FL-25, GOP Rep. Diaz-Balart leads 45% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. Among early voters, Garcia leads 52% to 46%.

• In CA-04, Democratic candidate Charlie Brown leads 48% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll.

• In SC-01, GOP Rep. Harry Brown leads 50% to 45% in a new SUSA poll.

• In TX-07, GOP Rep. Culberson leads 47% to 40% in a Zogby poll.

• In OH-15, Marie Joe Kilroy leads 46% to 37% in a Kilroy internal.

Jeff Merkley’s numbers are the most important of this group, as this is the Oregon Democrat’s largest lead yet against Gordon Smith, who continues to be stuck in the low 40s. More importantly, SUSA’s polls confirms what was one of the main reasons I changed the ratings of the race to lean Democratic two days ago: Because of Oregon’s mail-in voting system, Election Day is happening right now in Oregon, giving Smith no time to catch up. While remaining ahead, Kay Hagan does not look to be as favored as her Oregon colleague.

A number of fascinating indepenent House polls were released as well, the most noteworthy of which is Zogby’s survey from TX-22: This was long seen as an extremely highly endangered Democatic seat, but the DCCC’s decision to dump hundreds of thousands of dollars suggested they saw Lampson with a chance at surviving. Zogby’s poll indicates that the conventional wisdom was right and that Lampson is an underdog in what is one of the most Republican seats represented by a Democrat. That said, the DCCC has just debuted a very hard-hitting ad on Pete Olsen, accusing him of voter fraud. We will see whether that moves any numbers.

As for CA-04, SC-01 and TX-07, all three are heavily Republican districts and for independent polls to find the Republican under 50% in each and the Democrat leading in one is obviously major news, and confirms that Democrats can expect to prevail in a few heavily conservative seats on November 4th.

Poll watch: Obama leads big in OH, PA, FL, IN and more; Franken narrowly ahead

The clock is running out, and the only good news for McCain today is a IBD/TIPP poll that has him only down 1%. But just like yesterday’s AP poll, that appears to be an outlier as seven other national polls show Obama firmly in command (not to mention that IBD/TIPP has McCain with more than 70% among 18-24 year-old respondents). In fact, Obama leads by double-digits in four of the day’s survey, and McCain remains stuck in the low 40s (39% to 45%) in all eight – including IBD/TIPP.

State polls are even more decisive, and they are breaking in favor of Obama rather than against him. Today’s line-up of surveys has Obama posting some big margins across the country, and what is significant is that these surveys come from different institutes, some of which have not been particularly friendly to the Democrat before (National Journal/All State or Big10, for instance). Obama leads by double-digits in five polls of Pennsylvania, three polls of Minnesota, two polls of Wisconsin, two polls of Ohio and one poll each of Michigan, Iowa and Indiana.

Obama also leads outside of the margin of error in two Florida surveys (something McCain has not done in a single Florida poll for four weeks) and captures a narrow advantage in Montana in the first poll that (finally) includes Ron Paul’s name. He is within striking distance in Georgia, where early voting turnout confirms that he has a shot at making the race very close.

Needless to say, Obama needs to capture very few of the states I just mentioned. If he wins just one of the Big Three (OH, PA and FL), he will be in a very good position to capture the presidency; two would ensure victory; and even an (at this point unlikely) defeat in all three would certainly not be the end of his ambitions: A sweep of Colorado, Virginia and Nevada (or any of these replaced by Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina) could replace the Keystone State. With all of this in mind, let’s go on to today’s full roundup:

• Obama maintains a double-digit lead in the latest NYT/CBS poll. He is ahead 52% to 39% (he led by 14% last week). He leads by 6% among independents. 62% feel “personally connected” to Obama, 47% to McCain; more voters think Obama has the right temperament and personality to be president, and more voters think Obama would handle a crisis well. Palin’s favorability rating remains negative.

• Obama keeps his dominant position in the tracking polls. He gains 2% in Zogby (52% to 40%) and 1% in Rasmussen (52% to 45%). The race stays stable in Hotline (48% to 43%), ABC/Washington Post (54% to 43%) and Research 2000 (51% to 41%). Obama slips 1% in Gallup (51% to 45%) and 3% in IBD/TIPP (where he is only up 1%, 45% to 44%). That puts Obama’s lead in the day’s trackings at: 1%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 10%, 11%, 12%.

• Ohio: Obama leads by double-digits in two new polls, his biggest leads ever in the state. He leads 52% to 38% in a Quinnipiac survey (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in a Big 10 Battleground poll.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads by double-digits in four new polls. He leads 53% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll (he led by 15% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in SUSA. (He was ahead by 15% last week and the week before. The sample is more Republican this week.) He leads by 52% to 41% in a Big Ten Battleground poll. He leads 51% to 41% in a National Journal poll. He leads 52% to 42% in Morning Call’s tracking poll.

• Florida: Obama leads outside of the MoE in two new surveys. He is ahead 49% to 44% in a new Quinnipiac poll (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 49% to 42% in a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll. Obama seizes a big lead among independents in the latter, which was taken Monday through Wednesday.

• Indiana: Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Big10 poll. The race was tied in mid-September.

• Minnesota: Obama leads by double-digits in three polls. He leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll (he led by 7% two weeks ago). Obama leads 57% to 38% in a Big10 poll. Obama leads 50% to 40% in a National Journal poll.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads by 13% in two new polls, one from Big10 and one from National Journal.

• Montana: Obama leads 44% to 40% with 4% going to Ron Paul in a Montana University poll.

• Michigan: Obama leads by a stunning 58% to 36% in a Big10 poll.

• Iowa: Obama leads 52% to 39% in a Big10 poll.

• West Virginia: McCain leads 49% to 44% in an Orion Strategies poll. McCain led by 10% a month ago.

• Georgia: McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. McCain led by 9% two weeks ago.

• Maine: Obama leads 56% to 35% in a Critical Insight poll.

• Safe states: Obama leads 56% to 33% in a new PPIC poll of California. McCain leads 54% to 41% in a new Rasmussen poll of Louisiana. Obama leads 61% to 32% in a Big10 poll of Illinois. McCain leads 53% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. McCain leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Texas. Obama leads 54% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Washington. McCain leads 51% to 36% in a University of Arkansas of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

• Proposition 8 is losing 52% to 44% in a PPIC poll. However, the “no” was ahead 55% to 41% five weeks ago.

• Minnesota’s Senate race: Democrat Al Franken narrowly leads in two polls. In Rasmussen, he is ahead 41% to 37% with 17% for Barkley. Two weeks ago, Franken led by 6%. In a University of Wisconsin poll, he is ahead 40% to 34% with 15% for Barkley.

• In Kentucky’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell leads 47% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll.

• In Georgia’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss leads 47% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago.

• In Louisiana’s Senate race, Democratic Sen. Landrieu leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll. She led by 14% last month.

• In Maine’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Collins leads 54% to 42% in a Critical Insight poll.

• In Washington’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Gov. Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll.

• In IL-11, Democrat Debby Halvorson leads 50% to 37% in a new SUSA poll.

• In PA-12, Democratic Rep. Murtha is only up 46% to 41% in a new Susquehanna poll.

• In WA-08, Democrat Darcy Burner storms back to grab a 50% to 46% lead in a new SUSA poll. Reichert trailed by 10% three weeks ago.

• In MI-09, Democrat Gary Peters leads 46% to 36% against Rep. Knollenberg in a DCCC internal.

• In OH-15, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leads 44% to 36% in a DCCC poll. She led by the same margin three three weeks ago.

• In AL-02, Democrat Bobby Bright leads 50% to 43% in a DCCC poll.

Senate: It is difficult to know what to make of the Minnesota Senate race. Barkley is holding stable just under 20%, but his support is not firm: It could end up at a far lower point, but it could also end up rising if voters come to think he has a chance of pulling it off. In either case, it is impossible to know how that would affect Coleman and Franken’s totals.

House: Democrats get great news from SUSA. Darcy Burner appeared to be fading in WA-08, but she has now led in three polls in a row. The first two were Democratic polls, now an independent pollster confirms her comeback. IL-11 was once going to be an easy pick-up before GOP candidate Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient. Now, the Democratic surge appears to have buried Republican prospects of a come-from-behind victory here.

Furthermore, a trio of DCCC poll completes the strong news for Democrats, especially when combined with the NRCC pulling out of MI-09. That said, Susquehanna’s poll from PA-12 confirms the Democrats’ worst fear that Rep. Murtha’s recent comments about his districts has endangered his re-election prospects.

Poll watch: Ahead in OH, CO, NV, Obama jumps to huge lead in 3 PA polls; Stevens stays in the game

Today’s numbers are perhaps not as dramatic as yesterday’s, but the overall picture is still as rosy for Barack Obama. And it’s not necessarily because of any number in red states: it is his continuous surge in the four blue states (NH, PA, WI and MN) McCain is actively contesting that is the most remarkable.

In Pennsylvania, three new polls show Obama leading by double-digits – between 10% and 15% – a shocking development in a high-priority state in which the GOP is pouring big sums of money. In Minnesota, a survey shows Obama up by 14%. And his lead is in high single-digits in three polls from New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If he sweeps all four (as seems increasingly likely), Obama would be in an extremely favorable position. He would anchor himself at 264 votes, and he would need only one more of the competitive red states.

Today’s polls show how many he would have to choose from: Obama leads outside of the margin of error in Nevada, Colorado and Ohio (any one of which could be decisive) and is ahead within the MoE in Florida, North Carolina, and a second poll from Ohio. And Indiana continues to look highly competitive. Nothing here is as stunning as Obama’s double-digit leads in two Virginia polls yesterday, but these encouraging results nonetheless – and revealing of how much catching up McCain has to do over the next four weeks, starting with tonight’s debate. On to the full round-up:

• The tracking polls show Obama in a dominant position, though Diego Hotline has Obama suddenly “collapsing” to a 2% lead. That does seem like an outlier, however, as all other polls show Obama remaining in a solid position: He leads 51% to 42% in Gallup (+1), 52% to 44% in Rasmussen and 51% to 40% in Research 2000 (-1). And we now have a fifth tracking poll, released by Reuters/Zogby. Its introductory numbers have Obama leading 48% to 45%.

• Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 6% last week.

• Obama leads 52% to 42% in a West Chester University/NPR poll of Pennsylvania.

• Obama leads 54% to 40% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 8% last week and 4% two weeks ago.

• Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Research 2000/Reno Gazette poll of Nevada. He led by 1% in late August.

• Obama leads 49% to 47% in a new Insider Advantage poll of Nevada.

• Obama leads 48% to 46% in Mason Dixon’s poll of Florida. He also led by 2% in a poll taken two weeks ago.

• Obama leads 49% to 43% in a PPP poll of Ohio. McCain led by 4% in early September. Obama has gained among registered Democrats: he is now at 84% (up from 78%).

• Obama leads 48% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll of Ohio, with 3% for Nader and 2% for Barr. In a two-way race, he leads 50% to 47% (he led by 2% three weeks ago).

• Obama leads 49% to 48% in a CNN/Time poll of North Carolina, with 2% for Bob Barr. In a two-way race, the two candidates are tied at 49%. McCain led by 1% three weeks ago.

• Obama leads 50% to 42% in a CNN/Time poll of Wisconsin, with Nader at 4% and Barr at 1%. In a two-race race, he leads 51% to 46% (he led by 3% three weeks ago).

• Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of Wisconsin. Obama gets 90% of the Democratic vote.

• Obama leads 51% to 45% in a new Insider Advantage poll of Colorado. He led by 9% last week.

• Obama leads 51% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll of New Hampshire, with Barr at 3% and Nader at 1%. In a two-way race, Obama leads 53% to 45%.

• McCain leads 48% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of Indiana, with Barr at 5%. In a two-way race, McCain leads 51% to 46% (he led by 6% three weeks ago).

• The candidates are tied at 46% in a Research 2000 poll of Indiana. McCain led led by 1% last week.

• Obama leads 54% to 40% in a Minnesota Public Radio poll of Minnesota taken in the days after the VP debate. In the days before the debate, Obama’s lead was 47% to 43%. The margin of error is a large 5% on the post-debate sample.

• Obama leads 55% to 39% in a SUSA poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot numbers:

• In a SUSA poll of Proposition 8 in California, the yes has taken a narrow led for the first time – 47% to 42%.

• Ted Stevens captures a 49% to 48% lead in Rasmussen’s latest poll from Alaska’s Senate race. Begich led by 3% in early September and by 13% in late July.

• Beverly Perdue recaptures the lead in the latest PPP poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race. She is ahead 46% to 43%.

• In OH-01, a Research 2000 poll has Democrat Steve Driehaus leading Rep. Steve Chabot 46% to 44%.

• In OH-16, a GOP-held open seat, a Research 2000 poll has Democrat Boccieri leading Schuring 48% to 38%.

• In MI-07, an internal poll for the Schauer campaign shows him leading GOP Rep. Walberg 46% to 36%.

• In PA-11, an internal poll for the Barletta campaign shows him leading Rep. Kanjorski 47% to 39%. The previous Barletta poll had him ahead by 4%.

Statewide: SUSA has shown Proposition 8 has a higher chance of passing than in PPIC’s polls, but this is the first time the “yes” vote has been ahead in any survey that I am aware of – a reminder that this is very much a high stakes battle. Both parties have some good news, as Beverly Perdue and Ted Stevens are showing signs of life. But it is important to remember that the Alaska Senate race now looks entirely dependent on his trial verdict. If it is a tie now, Stevens would probably lose if found guilty and probably survive if acquitted.

House: More independent House polls, raising the number to 13 today! And the numbers are encouraging for Democrats: OH-16 is rated lean take-over in my rating, but it remains highly competitive, so it is good for Boccieri to open up some space. OH-01 and MI-07 are both GOP-held districts that are rated toss-ups, but both incumbents are in precarious positions if these numbers are to be believed. As for PA-11, Democratic Rep. Kanjorski is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and this is one of only three Dem-held districts that are currently rated lean take-over, so Barletta’s numbers confirm what we have been seeing over the past few months.

Poll watch: FL is dead heat, Obama leads in second NC poll, widens gap in PA

There have been relatively few polls released over the past few days, as it makes little sense to conduct surveys that are in the field both before and after the presidential debate. But the few surveys that were released today confirm that Obama continues to gain – though perhaps at a less dramatic pace than some polls last week suggested.

Obama’s strongest showing today comes in Pennsylvania, a state that is still rated a toss-up in my ratings but where two polls today find Obama widening the gap to 7% and 8%. Both pollsters (Morning Call and Rasmussen) had Obama leading by 3% and 4% last week in the Keystone State, implying that Obama is solidifying his claim on blue-leaning states (he opened a wide lead in a number of Michigan surveys last week).

But the basic situation remains the same: Obama is unable to put red states other than IA and NM away. The good news for Obama, however: He only needs one of those states (VA, OH, CO, NC, FL, IN…) as long as he holds on to the blue states, as he seems increasingly likely to do as PA and MI seem to be rapidly shifting towards him. And that is an awful lot of toss-up states to choose from… In today’s polls only, he leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado – all within the margin of error, sure, but he also trails within the MoE in Ohio and Florida. As long as Obama stays ahead nationally, is it really conceivable that McCain sweeps all these toss-up red states?

In particular, Obama’s gains are dramatic in North Carolina, where Obama leads for the second time ever and for the second time in a row. There is little question left that North Carolina has become a toss-up that will consume the GOP’s attention over the next few weeks. Obama also gains significant ground in Florida (5% in SUSA and 5% in Rasmussen compared to a poll taken last week-end).

On to the day’s full roundup, and note that I have fully updated my polling page (I had fallen behind), and added some color coding to make it easier to follow:

• Obama keeps up his lead in all four tracking polls. He leads by 5% in Diego Hotline (47% to 42%) and Rasmussen (50% to 45%). He maintains an 8% lead in Gallup (50% to 42%) and a 9% lead in Research 2000 (51% to 42%), whose Saturday sample had Obama leading by 11%. Interestingly, McCain is at 42% in three out of the four tracking polls.

• Obama leads 47% to 45% in a PPP poll of North Carolina (polling history), with 3% for Bob Barr. This is Obama’s second lead ever in the state, and it comes only a few days after the first (in a Rasmussen survey that found the same margin). PPP found a tie last week, which was already considered a strong result for Obama. 20% of the sample is back – about where it was in 2004, so PPP’s surveys don’t even posit an increase in the share of black voters. Sarah Palin’s popularity is falling.

• McCain leads 48% to 47% in SUSA’s latest poll from Florida (polling history). McCain led by 6% in SUSA’s past two surveys. Obama’s biggest gain occurs among Democrats, where he finally surges above the 80% line… The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday, after Friday’s debate.

• The candidates are tied at 47% in Rasmussen’s latest poll from Florida. This is a 5% improvement for Obama since last week.

• Obama leads 50% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania (polling history). He led by only 3% last week.

• Obama leads 49% to 42% in Morning Call’s 5-day tracking poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 6% yesterday, 4% on Friday.

• Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia, within the margin of error. Obama led by 5% in a Rasmussen poll taken mid-last week, but trailed by 2% a week ago.

• Obama leads 49% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. Obama led by 3% last week.

• McCain leads 48% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. This is the same margin as a poll taken last Thursday, but a 3% improvement for Obama since a week ago.
  

• Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.
  

• Safe states: McCain leads 53% to 41% according to Mason Dixon in Kentucky. McCain leads 55% to 39% in a Mason Dixon poll of Tennessee. McCain leads 57% to 36% in a Research 2000 poll of Wyoming. Obama leads 50% to 40% in a new PPIC poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

• Kay Hagan takes her biggest lead yet in any poll, 46% to 38% in the latest PPP survey of North Carolina’s Senate race (polling history). Libertarian Chris Cole gets 6%, which allows Hagan to hold Dole under 50% of the white vote.

• GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan leads 43% to 31% in a Research 2000 poll of FL-13 (polling history).

• GOP Rep. Ros-Lehtinen has a large lead, 53% to 36%, against Annette Taddeo in a Research 2000 poll of FL-18.

• GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart leads Joe Garcia 45% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of FL-25. The poll does find Obama trailing by 15%, though Kerry lost the district by 12%.

• In NJ-03, a Zogby poll finds GOP candidate Chris Myers narrowly ahead of John Adler, 39% to 37%. 22% are undecided.

• In PA-10, Rep. Chris Carney leads Republican challenger Paul Hackett according to a Lycoming College poll.

• A DSCC-sponsored poll finds Saxby Chambliss leading only 37% to 34% (down from a 6% lead in August) in Georgia’s Senate race (polling history), but the pollster’s decision to not push undecideds at all doesn’t strike that much confidence in Jim Martin’s chances.

• California’s Proposition 8 would be defeated 55% to 41% according to the latest PPIC poll.

Instead of releasing poll numbers, the DSCC would be investing some money into running an ad campaign in Georgia’s Senate race if they were that confident that this is a 3% race. To choose to not push undecideds at all in this red a state can be a way to lower an incumbent Republican’s numbers. Until we get more proof that Chambliss is this vulnerable, Georgia cannot be considered part of the top tier Senate races.

That said, Democrats can certainly celebrate Elizabeth Dole’s continuing collapse. What is truly worrisome for the incumbent Senator is that many pollsters are showing a similar trendline. Before this PPP poll, it was Rasmussen that had found Dole sinking to a new low at the end of last week. And Dole will also have to struggle against Obama’s ground game.

As for the House races, Democrats have their eyes on many Florida seats – and not all look as promising as they would hope. Of the three Southern Florida districts, however, two seem ripe for pick-up (FL-21 and FL-25), but this is not the first poll to find that Ros-Lehtinen looks safe in FL-18. The situation in FL-13 seems more debatable, but it does look like Democrats missed an opportunity in 2006 (or did they? in no district was the result as controversial as here).

RNC moves in IN, VA as Obama continues to inch ahead in state polls

Barack Obama has been organizing Indiana for months, and I moved Indiana to the toss-up column last week-end. It seems like the McCain campaign has finally taken notice, as Politico reports that the RNC is moving in the Hoosier State for the first Republican advertisements in that state. After North Carolina, this is the second red state this month that the McCain campaign is being forced to invest in – a move that would have been unthinkable a few months ago and that will surely require some financial sacrifices in other states.

Late September is the time a campaign wants to start locking states in and feel secure enough to stop advertising rather than launch an ad buy in a new state that ought to safely be in the red column. But as Obama has been running hard here for months and has pulled even in recent polls, the GOP’s denial was becoming suicidal. Indiana is now firmly on the map of battleground states, just as North Carolina. (The buy will start next week, which means Obama will have the Indiana airwaves to himself for a few more days.)

In fact, the RNC’s Indiana investment is part of a $5 million media buy in 6 states – Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The RNC’s two previous independent expenditures were only aimed at Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, so Virginia’s inclusion is also new. Though certainly not surprising given that the latest polls find a dead heat, it is still a significant development as even the McCain campaign has not always been a full player in Virginia and has let Obama outspend them.

Meanwhile, the day’s presidential polls once again highlight how much McCain has riding on tonight’s debate, and also explains why his campaigns felt compelled to roll the dice two days ago with its campaign’s suspension: Obama continues to inch ahead, expanding his advantage in the tracking polls (even in the shift-shy Rasmussen), taking a lead in Virginia that is outside of the MoE, closing the gap in a number of states like Florida, Missouri.

One bad poll for Obama is ARG’s Colorado survey that finds McCain in the lead, breaking a series of polls finding Obama surging in that state. (The poll’s sample is somewhat in question as it has 3% more Republican respondents than Democrats.) Another good news for McCain is that yet another Montana poll finds him pulling ahead by double-digits, as the Mountain West appears to be returning to its Republican roots.

• Everyone who follows polling data knows how small the shifts are in Rasmussen’s tracking poll, but Obama has just leaped ahead to a 5% lead (50% to 45%), one of his largest advantages in Rasmussen. Obama has also opened up his largest lead yet in Diego Hotline (49% to 42%). In Research 2000, Obama leads 48% to 43%.

• Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia, a dramatic turn-around from trailing by 2% in poll taken last week-end. This is the first time ever Obama has more than a 1% lead in Virginia in a Rasmussen poll.

• McCain leads by 1% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 5% in a poll taken Saturday, and by 5% in a poll taken last week.

• Obama leads 47% to 46% in an ARG poll of Florida. They were tied last week. Obama is competitive because Democrats outnumber Republicans, but McCain has a gigantic 27% lead among independents (who only make up 18% of the sample, so perhaps more Dem-leaning independents than usual identified themselves as Democrats?)

• McCain leads 47% to 46% in a new Research 2000 poll of Missouri. R2000 had just polled the state last week and found McCain leading by 4% – that was barely outside of the MoE, today’s margin obviously isn’t.

• McCain leads 48% to 46% in a SUSA poll of Missouri. He has a more solid party loyalty and leads by 8% among independents.

• McCain leads 48% to 45% in an ARG poll of Colorado. Obama has a slight lead among independents.

• Obama leads 48% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of New Hampshire. Three polls released yesterday all had Obama up 1%.

• Obama leads a narrow 47% to 43% lead in a Mulhenberg College poll of Pennsylvania

• McCain leads 52% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of Montana, a margin similar to what we saw with Rasmussen earlier this week.

• Obama leads 53% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of Oregon.

• Safe states: McCain leads 57% to 36% in a Research 2000 poll of Wyoming; McCain leads 54% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of South Carolina; Obama leads 53% to 43% in a SUSA poll of California.

It will be interesting to see whether Obama continues to compete in Montana, and how his campaign deals with Missouri – how will spending evolve there, and will Obama visit much?

Poll watch: Obama leads big in Colorado, Oregon; tight races in IL-11, WI-08

In the day’s second wave of polls, the news continues to be good for Obama, who gets his third Colorado lead in a row that is outside of the margin of error. After an Insider Advantage survey found him leading by 10% (a 7% bounce) and Quinnipiac showed him ahead by 4% (a 5% bounce), it is now PPP’s turn to show Obama jumping by 6% in two weeks to settle in a comfortable 51% to 44% advantage.

Combined with Iowa and New Mexico (two Bush states that are already leaning Obama) Colorado would be enough to get Obama over the top, so McCain cannot afford to fall behind in this state. He would then be forced to play catch-up and have to pour resources to get on the offensive in blue states. But one blue state in which Obama looks surprisingly secure is Oregon, where he posts yet another double-digit lead today. As his margin has decreased in other blue states like Washington, Minnesota and Wisconsin, Obama has not trembled in Oregon. What does that say about Gordon Smith’s chances to survive his Senate race?

• The day’s tracking have McCain regaining some of his footing: He continues to trail 48% to 42% in Research 2000, gains 1% in Gallup (Obama leads 47% to 44%), Rasmussen (a tie at 48%) and Diego Hotline (Obama leads 47% to 43%).

• Obama leads 48% to 46% in an ARG national poll. McCain lead by 3% in a poll conducted last week.

• Obama leads 51% to 44% in PPP’s poll of Colorado. He led by 1% in a poll taken two weeks ago. Palin’s favorability rating has collapsed, contributing to Obama’s gains.

• The candidates are tied at 46% in an Insider Advantage poll of Ohio. McCain had a 1% edge last week. McCain’s support has decreased among independents.

• Obama leads 50% to 46% in an ARG poll of Pennsylvania. Obama’s lead is just within the margin of error; McCain leads among independents.

• Obama leads 52% to 41% in an ARG poll of Oregon.

• Obama leads 56% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of California. Last month, he “only” led 51% to 37%. Obama’s winning in margin here will be crucial to determining the popular vote winner.

• McCain leads 53% to 41% in an ARG poll of Arkansas.

• McCain leads 57% to 38% in a SUSA poll of Kentucky.

• McCain leads 58% to 38% in a Rasmussen poll of Kansas.

• Obama leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of Massachusetts.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

• Mark Udall leads 48% to 40% in PPP poll from the Colorado Senate race. He led by 6% in August.

• Jeanne Shaheen only leads Sen. Sununu 48% to 44% in a UNH poll of New Hampshire.

• Dueling polls in IL-11, where an internal poll for Democratic candidate Debbie Halvorson finds her leading 43% to 35%; an internal poll for Republican candidate Marty Ozinga finds Halvorson leading 38% to 36%, which is a 5% improvement for the Republican since August. In both polls, the trendline favors Ozinga.
  

• In NY-26, an internal DCCC poll has Alice Kryzan leading Christopher Lee 39% to 29%, with 32% undecided. That the DCCC chose to release numbers in which undecideds are not pushed implies that the numbers would have been better for the Republican candidate if they had been.

• In MN-01, Republican Brian Davis has taken the somewhat unusual step of releasing a poll in which he trails significantly. Democratic incumbent Tim Walz leads 50% to 32%.

• In WI-08, an internal poll for the Gard campaign conducted by POS finds Democratic Rep. Kagen barely ahead, 46% to 45%. The margin was the same in a July poll.

• In NH-02, surprising numbers from an internal poll for the Horn campaign, also conducted by POS. Rep. Hordes (usually favored to win re-election) only leads Jennifer Horn 43% to 39%.

• Pat Roberts maintains a solid race in Rasmussen’s poll of the Kansas Senate race, 58% to 38%.

• I will discuss this survey in more detail later, but Mitch McConnell’s lead has fallen to only 3% in SUSA’s latest release from Kentucky’s Senate race. He led by 12% last month.

It is always difficult to know what to make of internal polls, which is why it is helpful to have two internal surveys from the same district at once. Though the numbers are slightly different, the two polls from IL-11 are telling the same story, one that we have long known based on how much money the DCCC is pouring in this district: Debbie Halvorson was once a prized Democratic recruit, and IL-11 seemed in the bag for Democrats – but that is no longer the case. The DCCC has been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars against Ozinga for months now, but Halvorson’s lead has decreased in the internals of both camps, which is never a good thing. Halvorson remains slightly favored, but the GOP can certainly still hope to save that seat.

In Colorado, this is the day’s second poll to find Udall’s lead in the high single-digits – pretty much where it has been for the past few months. As I said this morning, Udall has not closed the deal yet but given how static the race has been for months, Democrats should feel good about the race. As for New Hampshire, other recent polls have shown that Shaheen has maintained a high single-digits to low double-digits lead, and that Sununu has been unable to recover. The presidential match-up of this UNH poll was also more skewed towards McCain than usual, so it will be interesting to see other polling data from the state.

Poll watch: Obama can count on NM and IA, gains in MI; 4 VA polls split; Cazayoux, Hagan lead

A deluge of state polls released over the past 24 hours test the presidential election in almost all states we might want to have results from. And, as will often be the case over the next 6 weeks, the overall picture is inconclusive, with different polls finding differing results from the same state. Today’s example of such confusion is Virginia, where both candidates lead in two polls (update: I should have noted that McCain’s two leads are within the margin of error and Obama’s two leads are outside.) The take-away lesson is clear: Results from the most competitive states are more often than not within the margin of error. That includes, in today’s polls alone, NV, NH, PA, OH, VA, MN and NC.

That said, a few results seem significant enough to merit more attention. First, Obama leads by double-digits in yet another New Mexico poll, and has a comfortable advantage in a new Iowa survey. Both of these states were won by Bush in 2004, and both appear to be solidly anchoring themselves in the Obama column. That’s not a surprise for Iowa, but New Mexico looked extremely competitive at the beginning of the summer, so while we might be getting used to Obama leads in both of these states, it is a crucial development in the presidential race as it means that Obama can count on 12 electoral votes from red states – not enough to win him the White House, but enough to put him in striking distance.

Another significant result is Rasmussen’s poll of Michigan, where Obama extends his lead to 7%. This is the second poll in a week (after Marist’s poll) to find the Democrat gaining a comfortable advantage in what is generally considered the most endangered blue state. While other surveys in the same period have shown Obama’s lead within the margin of error, this could mean that Obama is improving his position in one of the states that is hurting the most economically. It should also be noted that today’s polling roundup contains the first good news for Obama from Minnesota in quite a while (he leads by 8%) and a survey that finds him with some breathing room in Wisconsin (he leads by 5%). On to today’s full roundup:

• Obama leads 51% to 47% among likely voters in a CNN national poll; among registered voters, he leads 51% to 46%. In the previous post-convention CNN poll, the candidates were tied at 48%. In a five-way-race, Obama leads 48% to 45% with 4% for Ralph Nader and 1% each for Barr and McKinney. Also: 47% of respondents blame Republicans for the financial crisis, while 24% blame Democrats; voters trust Obama more to deal with an economic crisis; and Obama leads by 14% when respondents are asked who represents change.

• As for the trackings, Obama leads in all fours: He is suddenly boosted up in Diego Hotline (49% to 44%), maintains a 1% lead in Rasmussen and a 4% lead in Gallup (48% to 44%) and loses one point to lead 48% to 42% in Research 2000.

• Obama leads 51% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. Obama led by 4% last month. He trails by 3% among independents and looks very solid among Democrats.

• McCain leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. Both candidates have high party loyalty, independents favor McCain.

• Obama leads 49% to 46% among likely voters in an ABC/Washington Post poll of Virginia; among registered voters, he leads 50% to 44%. Both candidates have very strong party loyalty, while independents split. [Update: I should have noted this, but Obama has a 5% lead among likely voters (outside of the MoE), when Barr and Nader are included. Among registered voters, Obama leads by a full 51% to 43% in a four-way race!)]

• McCain leads 48% to 46% in an ARG poll of Virginia.

• McCain leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. He led by 4% last month. Obama and McCain have a comparable favorability rating.

• Obama leads 46% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll of Pennsylvania. The poll was taken last Tuesday to last Thursday.

• Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania. Last week’s poll found a tie. The swing here is among independents – who have gone from McCain to Obama.

• Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Michigan. He led by 5% two weeks ago. He gets an impressive 90% among Democrats.

• McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 5% last week as well. Obama is still under 80% among independents Democrats.

• McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. Obama has managed to get himself above 80% of Democrats, but his party loyalty is still weaker than McCain’s and he trails among independents. The margin of error in this poll is a relatively high 4.5%, so McCain’s lead remains with the MoE.

• Obama leads 53% to 42% in a PPP poll of New Mexico. Obama’s lead among Hispanics (59% to 35%) is a bit smaller than we have seen of late.

• McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Suffolk poll of Nevada. The poll was taken over the past week.

• McCain leads 47% to 45% in a University of New Hampshire poll of New Hampshire. That’s a 5% improvement for the Republican in what is a trusted poll in the Granite State.

• Obama leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota. He led by 4% last month.

• Obama leads 48% to 47% in an ARG poll of Minnesota.

• Obama leads 50% to 45% in an ARG poll of Wisconsin. Obama leads by 7% among independents.

• Obama leads 51% to 44% in an ARG poll of Iowa.

• Obama leads 51% to 42% in an ARG poll of New Jersey.

• McCain leads 57% to 39% in an ARG poll of Georgia.

• McCain leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of South Dakota.

• Obama leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• In Minnesota’s Senate race, Norm Coleman is up 48% to 47% against Al Franken in Rasmussen’s latest poll. Last month, his lead was 3%. Third-party candidate Dean Barkley only has 3% (other polls have found him much higher).

• In North Carolina’s Senate race, Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole 51% to 45% according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. Dole lead by 12% in Rasmussen’s July poll.

• In New Mexico’s Senate race, Tom Udall leads Steve Pearce 57% to 37% in PPP’s latest survey.

• In NJ-05, GOP Rep. Scott Garrett leads 49% to 34% against Rabbi Shulman in a Research 2000 poll. McCain leads Obama 52% to 37% in the district (Bush won 57% to 43%).

• In MO-09, Blaine Luetkemeyer leads 49% to 40% against Democrat Judy Baker in a Research 2000 poll.

• In LA-06, an internal poll for the Cazayoux campaign has Rep. Don Cazayoux leading 48% to 32% for Bill Cassidy and 9% for Michael Jackson, a Democrat who is running as an independent. In July, Cazayoux only led by 5%. A key factor in Cazayoux’s improvement appears to be his exposure during Hurricane Gustav, as 64% approve of his Gustav-related work.

• Sen. Inhofe leads 56% to 34% in a Research 2000 poll of Oklahoma’s Senate race.

Some of these results are very encouraging for Democrats, particularly on the Senate side. There is no doubt remaining that Elizabeth Dole is in very serious trouble, as this is the second poll in a row (after PPP’s week-end survey) to find Kay Hagan leading outside of the margin of error. Those DSCC polls appear to have truly damaged Dole’s image. Democrats will also be comforted that Al Franken remains highly competitive despite the Republicans’ best attempts to discredit him.

As for House races, it would be very interesting to see independent polling out of LA-06. Don’t forget that Jackson is taking most of his votes from Cazayoux, so it is somewhat difficult to believe that Cazayoux could have that high a level of support with another Democrat hovering around the double-digit mark. But if Cazayoux enjoys any kind of advantage, that would already be a boost for Democrats, as he is one of the only Dem-held seats that are rated lean take-over in my latest House ratings. But Research 2000’s poll from MO-09 brings good news for Republicans and should damp Democratic hopes in an open seat that is deeply conservative; a SUSA poll released earlier in September found Luetkemeyer leading by 12%.

Morning polls: ARG releases wave of state surveys, PPP polls Virginia

American Research Group just released an unusually large collection of state polls. Though some of the most competitive battlegrounds (FL, PA, MI, NH, VA) are missing, this certainly gives us a good idea of the field of play heading in the final run. Overall, more swing states favor McCain (he narrowly leads in Colorado and Nevada, more comfortably in Ohio and by double-digits in North Carolina), but most numbers are well within the margin of error and Obama gets some good results as well (he leads in New Mexico and is very competitive in both Montana and West Virginia).

First, some other presidential polls that have been released since last night – including a new poll from Virginia:

• Obama leads 47% to 45% in a national poll released this morning by Reuters/Zogby. This is a 7% shift in his favor since the August poll. The poll was taken from Thursday through Saturday. Both candidates get 89% of their party’s vote.

• There is a tie at 45% in another national poll, released by AP Ipsos. The poll was taken Thursday through Monday and is a one point gain for Obama since last week’s survey that found McCain up 1.

• Obama leads 48% to 46% in a PPP poll from Virginia. This is the 4th PPP poll in a row to find Obama leading by 2%. Obama gets 91% of Democrats but trails among independents by 17%.

• Obama leads McCain 52% to 36% in a Field poll of California. Sarah Palin’s favorability rating is by far the worst of the four candidates.

• Obama leads 55% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of New York. McCain had 32% in August and 28% in July.

No surprises, nor anything particularly stunning in those surveys, though they confirm that the race has moved back to a dead heat nationally. Democrats will also be reassured by PPP’s Virginia poll, as McCain seems to have gained ground in other swing states (PA, OH, MN) but not Virginia. Now, on to ARG’s polls, starting with those from competitive states. All polls have a margin of error of 4%, and they have not all been taken at the same time:

• McCain leads 50% to 44% in Ohio. The poll was taken the 10th to the 13th. Obama only gets 79% of the Democratic vote. (The partisan breakdown is much more Republican than most polls that have been released of late; SUSA’s poll last week had a 9% edge for Democrats but this one is equal.)

• McCain leads 46% to 44% in Colorado. The poll was also taken the 10th to the 13th. There are more Republicans than Democrats, and Obama leads by 14% among Democrats.

• McCain leads 49% to 46% in Nevada. Here again, more Republicans are polled than Democrats but Obama leads among independents. The poll was taken over the week-end.

• Obama leads 51% to 44% in New Mexico. Democrats make up 51% of the sample (40% in 2004) and Obama leads among independents.

• McCain leads 49% to 47% in Montana. Ron Paul was not included, and neither were Barr and Nader in a state in which third party candidates could make a difference. The poll was conducted early, the 7th to the 9th.

• McCain leads 49% to 45% in West Virginia.

• McCain leads 52% to 41% in North Carolina, a disappointing result for Obama who only gets 25% among white voters. The poll was conducted over this week-end.

• McCain leads 50% to 45% in Missouri. The poll was conducted Thursday through Monday.

• Obama leads 51% to 41% in Maine.

• McCain leads 58% to 36% in Alabama, 55% to 39% in Alaska, 56% to 39% in Arizona, 68% to 25% in Idaho, 63% to 31% in Kansas, 57% to 37% in Kentucky, 50% to 43% in Louisiana, 57% to 36% in Texas, 65% to 29% in Utah and 66% to 28% in Wyoming.

• Obama leads 82% to 13% in DC, 51% to 40% in Delaware, 63% to 32% in Hawaii, 51% to 45% in Illinois, 55% to 38% in New York, 59% to 33% in Rhode Island.

It is remarkable how few surprises there are in these polls, with most results – including those in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico – tracking the average of recent polls from these states. Colorado and Nevada confirm that they are among the ultimate toss-ups of this year’s contest. The least expected results are surely those from West Virginia (this is the second poll in a row to find a competitive race), Illinois (does anything think Obama has something to fear there) and North Carolina, where pollsters seem unable to find a coherent model and where numbers are all over the place – from a 2% race to a 20% race.

Obama will also be reassured by the Montana poll, as the only recent survey we had seen (from Rasmussen) had McCain surging to a lead in the aftermath of the convention. The question facing his campaign now is whether to invest in West Virginia, a state that had long been ruled out for Obama because of his problems in Appalachia. There have been rumblings of that as of late, but no sign for now that Democrats will move in there. [Update, and partial correction: As Ben points out in the comments section, Obama ads are running in many of the state’s markets because of overlap with advertising in neighboring states. The same is true for McCain in New Jersey.]

Thursday polls: Flurry of down-the-ballot polls find Prop 8 failing, tight race in FL-21

The day’s most noticeable polling news is no doubt Gallup’s tracking poll that shows a 5% bounce in Obama’s favor – 8% over two days. He is ahead 48% to 42% in what is the first Gallup tracking taken entirely this week (though the Monday night interviews were mostly conducted prior to the primetime speeches). This bounce might be due to Hillary’s speech, which received an overwhelmingly positive reception according to Gallup.

That said, the Gallup tracking is for now more important for the way it will influence the convention’s coverage than for what it says about the direction of the race. A one day evolution of a tracking poll is not worth getting excited about, especially because this bounce is due as much to Saturday/Sunday interviews getting out of the 3-day total (McCain had good nights over the week-end, after Hillary supporters realized she would not be the VP) as to anything that has happened in Denver. A bounce will have to be measured by its stability over a few days and Rasmussen’s tracking is not showing much movement. Meanwhile, in state polls:

• In California, a PPIC poll taken in mid-August (the 12th to the 19th) finds Obama losing ground, up 47% to 38%. One interesting number is that Obama gets 71% of the Hispanic vote – enough to put to rest talk of any problem he might have with the Latino vote.

• In Colorado (polling history), a poll conducted by a Republican firm (Hill Research Consultants) for the Senate campaign of Bob Schaffer finds Obama narrowly ahead of McCain, 43% to 40%.

• In Idaho, a poll taken by Greg Smith and Associates finds McCain crushing Obama, 52% to 29%.

• A SUSA poll tested the Obama-McCain race in a South Florida district (FL-21) as part of a House poll (see below for the congressional numbers). Bush won here by 14% in 2004, but the race is now tied at 48%- quite a swing towards Democrats. The Cuban vote, however, remains solidly anchored in the GOP column (72% for the Arizona Senator).

There was some discussion this year about Democrats making inroads in the Cuban vote and McCain progressing among Latinos. Neither development is taking place according to these California and FL-21 polls, which should bring relief to the GOP for its Florida prospects and to Democrats for their chances in the Southwest.

Needless to say that Obama cannot afford seeing his margin shrink further than a high single-digit lead in California. Given the state’s importance, Obama cannot afford to give McCain any opening – but having to advertise in the Golden State would be very expensive. For now, Obama doesn’t have much to worry about. This is the 7th summer poll from California, and the first to have him in single-digits.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• In FL-21, SUSA finds a tight race, with Democratic challenger Raul Martinez narrowly lead GOP incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart, 48% to 46%. Here is the interesting part: 20% of respondents opted to conduct the survey in Spanish, and among them the incumbent was leading 2:1. Indeed, a third of respondents were Cuban and the Republican got 70% of their vote. SUSA warns that surveys might be under-representing non-English speakers, thus understating GOP support.

• In FL-13, an internal poll taken for Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan finds him crushing his 2006 competitor, Christine Jennings – 48% to 30%.

• In PA-10, an internal poll released by the Carney campaign finds the incumbent Democrat leading Chris Hackett 54% to 27%. This comes two days after an independent SUSA poll found a tight race, with the Democrat ahead 49% to 45%.

• In the Colorado Senate race (polling history) the internal Republican poll mentioned above finds Mark Udall narrowly ahead of Bob Schaffer, 41% to 38%. Both candidates’ unfavorability ratings has shot up since the April poll – 33% and 34% compared to 15% and 18% four months ago.

• In the Idaho Senate race, a poll taken by Greg Smith and Associates finds Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch leading Larry LaRocco 41% to 30%.

• PPIC’s poll of California finds that Proposition 8 to ban gay marriage is failing, with 54% of respondents planning to vote “no” and 40% “yes.” A parental notification proposition is much narrower, with 47% planning to vote yes versus 44%.

A lot of interesting numbers today, starting with the internal polls from PA-10 and FL-13. This is why internal polls have to be taken with a grain of salt – there is a 23% difference between Carney’s survey and SUSA’s numbers. But notice that there is only a 5% difference between Carney’s percentage in both of these polls, which is what we should take away here: Carney is slightly ahead, but he is also hovering around 50%. The same is true of FL-13, where the race leans towards Buchanan (despite the fact that Jennings might very well have won in 2006) but an independent poll might find different results.

As for FL-21, it features a furious party for the control of South Florida, along with FL-18 and FL-25. Demographic changes in the region are putting all these seats in play and Democrats have already reserved plenty of time in the South Miami media market. This is now the second poll to find Lincoln Diaz-Balart in a difficult position. A Bendixen poll released in early July had him leading 41% to 37%. It is interesting that Democrats have managed to put this in play despite the fact that the GOP retains strong support among the Cuban community.

Poll roundup: Obama has a shot in Indiana, GOP holding strong in MS-Sen and AL-03

It seems somewhat sacrilegious to return to polls after the excitement of the past 24 hours, but here is a roundup of the last two days of polling news. Before going on to state polls, let’s take a look to the state of the tracking polls, as today’s delivery of Rasmussen and Gallup will be the last taken entirely before Biden’s pick and the two week extravaganza that will be the conventions. Obama’s 2% lead in both Rasmussen and Gallup will be used as a marker for whatever bounce they receive – especially because both trackings have been hovering around those numbers for weeks now, with incredible stability.

Meanwhile, in state numbers:

• In Indiana, the first Rasmussen poll finds McCain leading but by a narrow margin, 46% to 42% (49% to 43% with leaners). That’s the same margin as the recent SUSA poll. McCain’s favorability rating is much stronger – 65% to 52%.

• In California, Obama is ahead in the Rasmussen poll, 51% to 37%, 54% to 41% with leaners.

• In Tennessee, McCain leads 56% to 32% in a Rasmussen poll, a 9% improvement since June. Obama’s favorability rating is disastrous: 39%, with 60% unfavorable!

• In Mississippi, the numbers are stable since July, with McCain leading 54% to 41% (56% to 43% with leaners). Take a look at this racial polarization: Obama only gets 13% of the white vote,  97% of the black vote! The racial gap is a stunning 166%…

The two interesting states of the list, of course, are Indiana and Mississippi. The former is one of the red states that the Obama campaign has been advertising in, and over the past 3 months we had only gotten two SUSA polls from it. One (in June) showed Obama leading by 1%; the other, released this week, had McCain leading by 6%. That SUSA now confirms that this race is in the mid single-digits means that we have enough confirmation to start taking the possibility of Indiana having become a truly competitive state more seriously. As of the beginning of this year, that would have seem like an insane proposition (Bush did win the state by more than 20%) and the extended primary season clearly made Democrats more enthused in this state.

Mississippi, on the other hand, seems to be anchoring itself in the safe McCain column. Remember that some Democrats did talk about this state at the beginning of the summer, lumping it with Southern states like North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. They argued that Obama would boost black turnout enough to put them in the competitive column. That argument never fully made sense in Mississippi (the state is rated safe McCain in my ratings), where Democrats start with a huge deficit and where the vote is so racially polarized that Obama would need to make significant inroads among white voters to overcome Bush’s 20% margin.

Kerry got 14% of the white vote there (!), as much as Bush did nationally among the black vote, and are we really to believe that a black candidate could do much better than that? There no evidence that Obama will succeed in appealing to Southern whites, but consider that his favorability rating among Mississippi whites in this poll is a shocking 18%!

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• In the Mississippi Senate race (polling history), Rocker Wicker maintains his large lead over Musgrove in Rasmussen’s poll. He leads 47% to 42%, 52% to 43%. Both have a favorable rating above 50% – though Wicker’s is a bit higher. The racial gap is smaller than in the presidential race: Musgrove only gets 83% of the black vote, manages to get 22% of whites.

• In NV-02, a Research 2000 poll finds Rep. Dean Heller leading Jill Derby 47% to 42%.

• In AL-03, a Capital Survey Research Center poll shows Rep. Rogers handily beating his Democratic challenger Joshua Segall, 54% to 33%.

Rasmussen’s numbers from MS-Sen are undoubtedly worrisome news for Democrats and a boost to GOP morale. Republicans were hoping that Wicker would get a boost as the electorate becomes more polarized (especially due to the conjunction with the presidential race). Musgrove will not have a “D” next to his name, which could help him escape Obama’s drag and perform better among white voters (though it could also reduce his total among black voters). This is the same margin as last month’s Rasmussen numbers, but previous Rasmussen polls (and all other surveys from this state) had found a toss-up. It will be interesting to see what other surveys have to say, but we had always known that Musgrove would be better off if this special election had been held in March as it should have been.

The two House races are interesting as well, as they both come from the list of third-tier races that my latest House ratings pointed out will be particularly fun to follow over the next few weeks: AL-03 is actually not that dominant a Republican district, much less, in any case than AL-02. Democrats have been touting Joshua Segall, but this poll clearly suggests he will have a lot of work to do over the next few months. NV-02 looks like it will be a better option for Democrats to contest: This is also a district Bush won convincingly; but Heller won the election with a much narrower margin than he ought to have in 2006, and that was already against Jill Derby. Since then, Democrats have had registration gains in the state and in this district, and while the seat still clearly leans retention, Derby has a clear shot.

Thursday polls: Toss-up in Montana, Begich and McConnell move ahead

The number of polls released today was so outstanding that a second roundup is required – so I apologize for making this a day particularly heavy with polling posts. As compensation, I offer you this link to an amusing interview of top McCain strategist Rick Davis (the one who signed the memo alleging that “only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand “MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars”) by high-profile NBC journalist Andrea Mitchell. A visibly exasperated and incredulous Mitchell challenges Davis to justify why Obama is a celebrity and why the campaign is stooping to such a low level – “no one would deny that,” answers Davis.

In fact, the entire interview is a good pointer on the type of arguments the McCain campaign is looking to use in the coming weeks. In particular, Davis choosing to repeatedly diss the support Obama received in Germany as something that ought to make voters dislike him was a clear echo of the 2004 race and the efforts to portray Kerry as too snobbish, too European. Davis went as far as to hold up expats as the type of elites “working class aspiring voters” should rebel against, and explicitly gave up on the entire expat vote (they’re expats, so they vote for Obama, he charged) – something that might not be so wise considering that expats are not necessarily a monolithically Democratic electorate and that they might impact a close election. Davis’s one-leaner against John Weaver is also particularly noteworthy.

Back to polls. This morning, Quinnipiac showed tight races in Ohio and Florida while Obama led in Pennsylvania and CNN’s national poll. In yet more presidential polling released today, we got some more narrow results:

• For the fourth consecutive day, Obama lost ground in Gallup’s tracking poll. Up 9% on Sunday, he now gets 45% to McCain’s 44% – the narrowest the race has been for more than 10 days, or before Obama embarked on his trip.

• Another national poll, by Pew, has Obama leading by 5%, 50% to 45%. In June, Obama led by 8%. 48% said they learned something about Obama’s foreign policy as a result of the trip, versus 52%.

• In Rasmussen’s poll from Montana, McCain gets 45% to Obama’s 44% – and the two are tied at 47% when leaners are included. Three weeks ago, Obama was ahead by 5% – but that was seen as a truly shocking result. McCain’s favorability rating is slightly better.

• In Insider Advantage poll from Georgia, the race remains surprisingly close, with McCain ahead 45% to 41% with 3% for Bob Barr.

• In two Kentucky polls, McCain remains ahead – albeit by varying margins. For Rasmussen, he is up 49% to 39% (down from a 15% lead) but Obama’s unfavorability rating is 50%, compared to 35% for McCain’s. In Research 2000‘s poll, McCain leads 56% to 35%.

• A Texas poll released by Rasmussen, meanwhile, finds McCain holding on to a 9% lead, 50% to 41%. With leaners, the race narrows to a 52% to 44% margin.

• In California, Obama is ahead 50% to 35% in a PPIC survey.

• Finally, an Idaho poll released by Research 2000 has McCain leading 53% to 37%. Four years ago, Bush won here by 39%.

Among these state surveys, the Montana poll is certainly the most interesting, but it is a shame that Rasmussen is the only institute that is releasing polls from this state, making it hard to confirm the state’s tightness. McCain might have gained 6% in the past 3 weeks here, but we are not used enough to seeing Montana be this competitive that a tie can in any way be regarded as a disappointing showing for Obama. The Illinois Senator has been running ads in this state and visited it already, and it seems like he succeeded in putting it in play. In fact, the Idaho poll confirms how much of a shift we are observing in the Mountain West.

The other polls come from states that we have long known are less competitive, with Texas and Georgia two states in which McCain’s leads are often much smaller than they ought to be but in which it would take much too great an investment by Obama to truly move the numbers. The Illinois Senator has been spending in Georgia, but other polls have shown larger leads for McCain.

Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot polls were released during the day:

• The most entertaining came from Alaska, where Rasmussen polled three possible match-ups in the day after Ted Stevens’s indictment. If the Senator wins his primary and stays in the race, he is trailing Mark Begich 50% to 37%. Stevens’s favorability rating remains positive, at 50% to 46%. Begich would beat real estate developer David Cuddy 50% to 35% and he leads against unknown but wealthy businessman Vic Vickers 55% to 22%.

• In Idaho‘s Senate race, Research 2000’s poll finds a surprisingly narrow race, with Lieutenant Governor Risch leading former Rep. LaRocco 42% to 32%, with 5% to independent candidate Rex Rammell.

• In Kentucky‘s Senate race, two similar results: Rasmussen found McConnell leading 50% to 38% (up from 48% to 41% lead last month) and Research 2000 showed McConnell leading 49% to 38%, compared to 12% lead last month.

• Finally, two interesting independent House polls from SUSA. In IN-09, Rep. Hill is leading 49% to 42% in the third fourth match-up between the Democrat and Mike Sodrel.

• In WA-08, SUSA finds Republican Rep. Reichert with a 50% to 44% lead against his opponent Darcy Burner, in another rematch from 2006. (No surprises in WA-02, where Democratic Rep. Larsen has a huge lead in a race no one is following.)

The reason the Alaska Senate race is in such a chaotic race is that we don’t know who will be running against Mark Begich. If it is any of the three people polled by Rasmussen here, it would mean that (1) Stevens lost the primary to Cuddy or Vickens or that (2) he won the primary and then insisted to stay on the ballot. Under either of these scenarios, it is nearly certain that Alaska would join New Mexico and Virginia as three Senates Democrats are likely to pick-up. The GOP’s hope in this seat is for Stevens to win the primary and then withdraw from the race – allowing for a stronger Republican to try his luck. Until we get a better idea of whether this is a possible scenario, Rasmussen’s poll is not enough to conclude Begich is the clear favorite.

The Kentucky and Idaho Senate races are to second-to-third tier races that the DSCC might be hoping to put in play if it hits the jackpot. The former contest has been heated, with McConnell going on air early with negative ads related to energy issues. As a result, it is hardly surprising to see him take his first consistent double-digit lead. Given how large McConnell’s war chest is (more than $9 million), Lunsford will be vulnerable to such attacks throughout the campaign. The Idaho race is less engaged but a number of Republicans are grumbling that Risch is not running a strong enough campaign; it will take much more than that for LaRocco to get close to scoring a huge upset.

Finally, both IN-09 and WA-08 will featured tight races if only because of the intensity of the previous elections. This is the third fourth consecutive match-up between Hill and Sodrel, with the Democrat having already won 2 out of 3. Reichert survived 2006 by only two percentage points. Both incumbents are flirting with the 50% line and are thus clearly endangered, but such leads are more impressive in polls of rematches in which the challenger is already somewhat known.

Poll watch: Monitoring the bounce

Our previous bounce watch came in the days following Barack Obama’s final victory against Hillary Clinton, and Clinton’s concession speech. That week, Obama inched narrowly ahead of John McCain and has maintained his slight lead ever since, as McCain has not led in a single national poll in that period. Yet, the GOP was clearly worried that Obama could jump to a double-digit lead, and that did not happen. Now, we are on to a second bounce watch: Will Obama benefit from the wall-to-wall coverage of his international trip?

A few days ago, I argued that the long-term impact of this trip is likely to be under-the-surface changes in voters’ perception of the Democratic candidate – shifts that might not immediately be obvious to polls. Today, the Gallup tracking poll shows enough movement to warrant our attention:

• In the past three days, Obama has moved from a 2% lead to a 6%, then 7% and then 9% lead. In today’s release, Obama is ahead 49% to 40%.

I do not report the results of the tracking polls every day, but a 7% swing in three days is a statistically significant swing that gives Obama his largest lead in the history of Gallup’s tracking polls (since March). Obama falls just short of the double-digit barrier, but the poll’s timing – the first Gallup tracking released after Obama’s return to the United leaves little doubt that the past few days have generated enough positive coverage for Obama to see him bounce upward. However, the Rasmussen tracking poll finds the race remaining stable today:

• Obama leads 49% to 44% with leaners, 46% to 41% without. His favorability rating (56%) is comparable to McCain’s (55%). Obama had inched upwards five days in a row but he enjoyed a 6% lead two days ago. Unlike in Gallup, Obama did not widen his advantage in Rasmussen as his trip concluded.

Beyond the size of the bounce, the question is whether or not the bounce will last. As media coverage of Obama’s week abroad is now ceasing, what will voters remember, and did this trip matter enough to shift the race towards Obama all by itself? After all, with the candidates’ vice-presidential picks probably coming up in the next 10 days, the political conversation will soon shift to a completely different topic. And as McCain is dialing up his attacks on Obama’s national security credentials, we will soon see how solid Obama’s armor is on this issue.

Meanwhile, two state polls were released this week-end – though neither is from a battleground state:

• In California, Rasmussen finds Obama leading 50% to 38%, 52% to 42% with leaners. That is actually quite a gain for McCain who trailed 58% to 30% last month. Previous Rasmussen results showed a result more in line with this week’s. Obama’s favorability rating is also a bit superior – 60% to 54%.

• In South Carolina, Research 2000 shows McCain ahead 53% to 40%. Obama only gets 15% of the white vote while McCain gets 4% of the black vote (31% of the sample) – as great a racial polarization as we have seen in Southern polls.

While some Democrats are talking about picking-up Georgia and Mississippi, South Carolina is mentioned even more rarely and with good reason: The share of the black vote is lower than Mississippi’s, but the white vote seems to be as locked for Republicans than in Mississippi (in 2004, Kerry’s share of the white vote was slightly better here, 22% versus… 14% in Mississippi), an impossible equation for a national Democrat to resolve. Note, however, that the most recent SC poll, released by PPP two weeks ago, had McCain leading by only 6%.

As for California, McCain enjoyed a big swing in his favor here, but remains distanced in a state that would cost so much to invest any effort in that McCain would be unable to contest it even if he wanted to. Unless McCain gets a national landslide, California is off-limits for him. However, the margin of Obama’s victory in the Golden State will be key to determining the totals of the national popular vote. If Obama builds up a huge win in California, it might not help him in the electoral college but it will tremendously boost up his numbers
in the symbolic popular vote.

Wednesday polls: Merkley takes his first lead in Oregon’s Senate race, though Dole and Roberts increase their lead

Democrats have targeted Gordon Smith since the very first days of the cycle. Along with New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota, Oregon was part of the original list of the DSCC was determined to go after. But a disappointing recruitment process followed by primary difficulties for Jeff Merkley made Democrats anxious that they could be wasting an opportunity here — just as they seem to be doing in Maine. Well, Democrats finally got some good news from the race with the first poll to find Merkley leading the Republican incumbent:

• After two straight polls that found Smith leading by single-digits, Rasmussen released its July survey today with Merkley narrowly ahead of Smith, 43% to 41%. When leaners are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%.

Make no mistake, this will not be an easy race for Democrats. Smith has always known he has a target on his back and he has prepared himself — even airing ads linking himself to Barack Obama! Projecting as moderate an image as possible is essential for Smith given Oregon’s increasingly blue profile, but it seems that even might not be enough. Forget Susan Collins, Gordon Smith is the most at risk of being Chaffee-ed this year.

Beyond Oregon’s Senate poll, we can launch our usual poll roundup, starting with a national poll:

• The latest Reuters/Zogby poll finds Obama slightly increasing his lead. He is now ahead 47% to 40%, though he only has a 3% lead among independents.

This is now the fourth national poll in two days showing Obama with a high single-digit lead, after Quinnipiac’s 9%, the NYT’s 6% and the Washington Post’s 8%. Just as in yesterday’s Quinnipiac survey, it is striking to see Obama leading comfortably overall but not among independents. In 2008, Democratic candidates can win based on their base and on voters who have come to identify with the party since 2004, as long as they can hold roughly even among independents. I stand by what I said yesterday: This confirms to me that it is a “strategic blunder” for Obama to emphasize his centrist positions. In Rasmussen’s Oregon poll, Smith and Merkley get the same percentage of the Republican and Democratic vote respectively and Smith leads among independents by a fairly large 10% — though he trails overall!

Next comes a wave of state presidential polls:

• SUSA’s poll of North Carolina finds McCain’s lead narrowing to only five percent, 50% to 45%. Obama gets 94% of the black vote but only 31% of the white vote.

• In Oregon, Rasmussen shows Obama up 46% to 37%, a lead comparable to what he posted last month.

• In Washington, Moore Information — a Republican firm — finds Obama leading 47% to 37%.

• And California‘s most reputable survey, the Field, has Obama crushing McCain 54% to 30%.

• No surprises in Kansas, finally, as McCain is up 20% in Rasmsussen’s latest poll, 52 to 32%. That’s up from a 10% lead last month.

No surprises on the Pacific Coast, with Obama holding strong in all three of these states — increasingly so in Oregon and Washington, places Democrats should always be careful in. North Carolina remains an interesting state, with poll after poll showing McCain holding on by the tightest of margins. Note that SUSA’s sample includes 19% of black voters, whereas the 2004 exit poll shows that 26% of voters were African-American (and some predict an increase in black turnout). That shift alone might allow Obama to make up the difference of the SUSA poll.

But Obama will have to improve his share of the white vote to be truly competitive in this Southern state – or in any Southern state except Virginia. Kerry got 27% of whites here four years ago, roughly what Obama got in this SUSA poll. But the good news for Democrats is that Obama does not need to come close to McCain among Southern white voters: combined with overwhelming support from black voters, a significant boost among white voters is all Obama needs to win North Carolina. If 25% of the electorate is black and Obama gets around 90% of that vote, 36% of the white vote would be enough to carry the state.

Finally, a number of down-the-ballot polls:

• In North Carolina‘s Senate race, SUSA finds Elizabeth Dole jumping up to a 12% lead, up from the 4% in May.

• The state’s gubernatorial race remains a complete toss-up, with Beverly Perdue at 47% and Pat McCrory at 46%.

• In South Dakota‘s Senate race, Tim Johnson has no problem as he crushes his Republican opponent 60% to 35%.

• Finally, in the Kansas Senate race, Rasmussen breaks the long series of polls finding Sen. Roberts surprisingly weak by now showing him leading Jim Slattery 57% to 30%.

The Dole-Hagan numbers continue to disappoint Democrats, though SUSA’s poll does nothing but confirm what other institutes have already shown: Hagan received a dramatic boost following her primary victory in early May, but Dole’s ad campaign since then have allowed her to create some gap again. She rebounded by 15% in one month in Rasmussen, jumped back up double-digits in Civitas and PPP.

And the Democrat’s quest to find new seats to put in play is also countered today by Rasmussen’s Kansas results; but keep in mind that Research 2000 and Cooper Associates had also found unexpectedly tight numbers. What might have changed in the past few weeks? Taking no chances, Roberts started airing his first ad two weeks ago.

Presidential polls: The solidifying Democratic base

Today is a day heavy with polling posts, as I am still catching up after two days of continuous collapses in my hosting and changes to my URL and templates. After having reviewing the day’s uncommonly high Senate polls, on to the numerous presidential surveys. As I have said many times, the key to this election resides in the vote of registered Democrats. The shift of partisan identification almost ensures that Obama will be elected if he achieves high support among Democratic voters and thus make the breakdown of independents and registered Republicans quasi-irrelevant. As you will see in some of today’s polls, the vote of Democrats is key to Obama’s progressing from Kerry’s numbers:

• Missouri, first, swings back to McCain in SUSA’s latest poll. After a 2% Obama lead in the previous poll, McCain is now ahead 50% to 43%, despite a significant Democratic advantage in voting registration. The reason? Obama only gets 76% of registered Democrats.

I moved Missouri out of the McCain column to the slate of toss-ups in my latest electoral college ratings, though many polls through the spring pointed to a slight Republican advantage here. It is striking that this poll shows no improvement from the numbers of 2004 despite a partisan breakdown that is much more favorable to Obama. TPM is reporting that McCain is blanketing the state with advertising while Obama is not really doing much for now. If is true, this would obviously call into question Obama’s determination to win the state. Will he pull a Kerry and give up on Missouri way before any vote is cast?

In a series of much-discussed polls from Quinnipiac, meanwhile, Obama achieves very high support among registered Democrats and thus runs a clean sweep across four battleground states:

• In Colorado, Obama leads McCain 49% to 44%. He gets more than 90% among registered Democrats, leads by 12% among independents and has a 62% to 36% lead among Hispanics, a key constituency.

• In Michigan, Obama is ahead 48% to 42%, with 86% of registered Democrats and a 8% lead among independents.

• In Minnesota, Obama crushes his opponent 54% to 37%, with 88% of registered Democrats and a 54% to 33% lead among independents!

• In Wisconsin, Obama is also ahead by double-digits, crushing McCain 52% to 39%, with 88% of registered Democrats and a 13% lead among independents.

While a representative from the institute does warn that Obama’s lead “is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign,” it is undeniable that Obama has a key advantage: The dominance of Democratic voters and the fact that he needs independents less than Kerry did. McCain will have to get Obama under the 86%+ range he is in the Quinnipiac polls. As to these particular states, it is looking increasingly evident that Obama is looking to secure the “Dukakis 5” and his lead in MN and WI is much more consistent and substantial than Kerry’s were four years ago.

As for Colorado and Michigan, there are sure to be some of the most disputed states this fall. In fact, Colorado looks to be as favorable a Bush state as any, with Rasmussen and Quinnipiac finding slight leads for the Illinois Senator. Keep in mind that the state brings 9 electoral votes, a significant number that would get Obama an electoral majority if coupled with New Mexico and Iowa. That would entail holding on to all the Kerry states, and Michigan looks to be one of the toughest for Obama. But after a series of disastrous polls this spring, it looks like the increase in Democratic unity is allowing Obama to create some space

Other presidential polls released today:

• In California, Obama crushes McCain 58% to 30%, the double of the 14% lead he enjoyed last month. There is a stunning difference in favorability rating in a state that Bush had respectable showings in: 63% for Obama and 43% for McCain.

• A Lyceum poll from Texas finds McCain only ahead 43% to 38%.

• A Mississippi survey released by Rasmussen finds McCain leading 50% to 44%, which is the same lead as last month. There is however a clear difference in favorability rating, with McCain enjoying 58% and Obama 48%. Furthermore, 37% have a very unfavorable opinion of the Democrat.

• In Tennessee, McCain’s lead is closer to what we would expect, 51% to 36%. He led 58% to 31% last month.

• In Nebraska, finally, McCain is ahead 52% to 36%, with a huge advantage in favorability rating (68% to 48%). Keep in mind that NE divides its electoral votes by CD, with the 1st and 2nd being much more favorable to Democrats than the 3rd. Rasmussen did not release district-by-district breakdown.

None of these numbers are particularly surprising, though there are two important observations to be made: (1) This Texas poll is not particularly reliable, as no one really knows much about Lyceum. But this is not the first poll showing a tight race in the Lone Star State. Obama is not running ads here, but he is sending a few staffers and has a huge army of volunteers. Forcing McCain to play defense in a state he cannot afford to even think about would be devastating for the GOP.

(2) Combine the tightening of Texas over the past four years with the huge lead Obama has in California and the result is obvious: If November results are anything close to this, it is impossible to imagine Obama losing the popular vote… though he won’t gain any electoral vote in the process. A 28% lead in California means increasing Kerry’s margin by many millions — and the same is true in Texas.